Some changes to AAFC’s outlook report for principal field crops

The market analysis group of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has issued a new outlook report for principal field crops.

The outlook report uses the most recent yield estimates as well as seeded acreage and export statistics and also takes production and demand in other countries into account.

As compared to the report issued in August, average price projections for the current crop year have either stayed the same or increased for all crops except corn, which is down slightly.

Wheat, barley, oats and field peas are among the crops unchanged from last month. The durum price projection has been increased by $10 a tonne and is now a $90 a tonne premium over spring wheat.

The canola price projection is up by $25 a tonne compared to last month – surprising given the large drop in canola prices over the past few weeks.

The average flax price projection has been increased by $10 a tonne as compared to last month, but remains well below last year and well below the five-year average.

Lentils, an average of red and green price projections, are up $100 a tonne over last month. A $100 a tonne increase has also been applied to the chickpea price projection.

Even larger increases have been applied to mustard and Canary seed, with the projected mustard average price for this crop year up by $120 a tonne and Canary seed up by $115.

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