Ahead of the model-based Statistics Canada production report due out on Thursday, Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton says it’s likely the agency’s numbers for oats will increase.

StatsCan issued its first model-based production report for 2023-24 on Aug. 29, which placed the country’s oats at about 2.429 million tonnes.

While the first report estimated the crops as of July 31, the second report will take them as of Aug. 31.

He suggests the agency’s previous estimate for harvested acres, at 828,800, is likely a little high.

Also, any increase in production would still produce a crop well short of last year’s 5.227 million tonnes.

StatsCan last Friday issued a stocks report which placed oat ending stocks for 2022-23 at 1.275 million tonnes — far more than the 333,000 the year prior and above the five-year average of 518,000.