The looming harvest may keep a lid on the upside in the ICE Futures canola market over the next month as participants wait to get a better handle on the size of this year’s crop.
MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville says we’re still at the mercy of trying to determine what size of crop we have, noting trade guesses range anywhere from 16.5 million to 19 million tonnes.
He was leaning toward the lower end of that range, at around 17.5 million tonnes, which would be well below Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s current estimate of 18.8 million and would leave the country with relatively tight exportable supplies.
He expects domestic crushers would continue to pay up for canola, given the historically wide crush margins, with most of the necessary demand-rationing coming from the export side of the market.
He adds gains in outside vegetable oil markets were supportive, limiting the downside risk for canola through the harvest season.
Beyond the Canadian harvest, the market will also be keeping an eye on U.S. soybean production and then on South American crop potential.