Durum wheat is going to be at a premium.

It appears highly unlikely that this year’s durum crop in Canada and the U.S. will be large enough to meet the demands of the countries that normally import durum for their pasta needs.

In the July 12 Crop Production report, USDA said durum production in 2023 was forecast at 54 million bushels down 9.9 million bushels, or 16%, from 64 million bushels in 2022.

Canadian durum production is also expected to be down significantly. 

It’s not just the quantity that is an issue, there is also concern about the quality.

Poor quality would not only be detrimental for exports to key pasta-producing countries such as Italy, but also would be detrimental to U.S. and Canada pasta makers.

According to Saskatchewan Agriculture the condition of the durum crop has steadily declined from a rating of 87% good to excellent back at the end of May to just 11% good to excellent in the most recent crop report, with 60% of the durum crop rated poor to very poor.